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Zero net migration would shrink UK economy by 3.6%, says thinktank

04.02.2026 07:00 | The Guardian World

Jump of £37bn in budget deficit by 2040 would force government to increase taxes, NIESR predictsThe UK economy would be 3.6% smaller by 2040 if net migration fell to zero, forcing the government to raise taxes to combat a much bigger budget deficit, a thinktank has predicted.The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said falling birthrates in the UK and a sharp decrease in net migration last year had led it to consider what would happen if this trend continued to the end of the decade. Continue reading...

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